Childhood Experiences, Self-Efficacy and Migration Aspirations among African Youth: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Abstract

Understanding the developmental antecedents of migration aspirations is critical for evidence-based migration governance in Africa. While structural factors driving irregular migration are well-documented, the role of childhood experiences in shaping youth migration aspirations remains underexplored. This systematic review synthesizes evidence on the relationships between adverse and positive childhood experiences, self-efficacy, and migration aspirations among African youth. Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines, we searched Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, Google Scholar, African Journals Online (AJOL), and Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ) for peer-reviewed studies published between January 2015 and December 2025. Inclusion criteria required empirical studies examining relationships between childhood experiences and migration aspirations among African populations. For the quality appraisal, we used the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT). A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted when sufficient homogeneous studies were available for pooling. Of the 4,041 identified records, 68 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 42 contributed to the quantitative synthesis. Adverse childhood experiences were positively associated with migration aspirations (pooled OR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.32-2.11, k = 28), while positive childhood experiences showed protective effects (pooled OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.41-0.82, k = 19). Across k = 7 studies providing mediation data, self-efficacy was associated with 34–47% of the observed association between childhood experiences and migration aspirations, suggesting a candidate pathway requiring longitudinal verification. Migration narratives from family, peers, and digital media moderated these relationships, amplifying aspirations among youth with moderate self-efficacy. Geographic concentration in West Africa (Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal) and methodological heterogeneity limit generalizability. Findings support life-course approaches to migration governance that address childhood adversity as an upstream determinant of migration aspirations. Policy recommendations include strengthening child protection systems in high-emigration areas, developing youth self-efficacy programs, and integrating balanced migration information into educational curricula. Future research should prioritize longitudinal designs and expand geographic coverage beyond West Africa.